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THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION?

Une étude montre que 47% des emplois actuels sont automatisable d'ici 20 ans !

Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne

September 17, 2013

Abstract

We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To as- sess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine ex- pected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment. According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. We further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relation- ship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation.

http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employ...

Contributor: 
Mathieu Despont
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